That the Tonse Alliance, or what still remains of it, is headed for an end, is no brainer. For now it is just a matter of when this will happen. If we are to prevail on UTM Party secretary general Patricia Kaliati’s recent pronouncement on her party’s stand on the alliance, then the end could actually come sooner than later. In this article, we argue that it is not as easy as meets the eye for UTM to dump the Tonse government now.

For starters, UTM is one of the major partners in the Tonse Alliance which dislodged the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) from power in the July 23 2020 court-sanctioned presidential elections. Kaliati told the local media recently that her party will come out soon to inform Malawians on whether or not it will remain in the ruling Tonse Alliance.

Her statement comes against the background that some people are asking whether or not the party will field a presidential candidate in 2025. Her response was that Chilima is expected to lead the onslaught in 2025 considering his capacity which she said is shown whenever he is discharging his duties.

Kaliati’s sentiments also come against the backdrop of claims that Chakwera and Chilima signed an agreement that the MCP leader would lead the pack in 2020 while the UTM president would be the torchbearer for the alliance in 2025. But Malawi Congress party (MCP) cadres at the highest level vehemently contend the said agreement between the two politicians, and that whether real or just imagined the agreement is not binding on the party. Consequently, the MCP national executive committee has endorsed Chakwera as the one to lead the party in next year’s elections.

One would then ask why it is difficult for UTM to walk out of the alliance after it has become crystal clear that the party has been lied to on the said agreement.

UTM’s cruncher is complicated first and foremost by the fact that it has many people serving in the Tonse government. UTM has at least three full members in Chakwera’s 31-member Cabinet. These are Michael Usi (Natural Resources and Climate Change), Agness Nyalonje (Labour) and Vera Kamtukule (Tourism and Culture). The party also has several of its members in embassies and as chief executive officers in public entities as well as directors in parastatal boards. Thus in the current mix of how government positions are shared between the two main alliance partners, if Chilima were to walk out of the alliance today, I doubt Usi, Nyalonje, Kamtukule and the host of other cadres in embassies and parastatals would follow him. In any case, if UTM were to dump Tonse today, while Chilima would have very little to lose, as he would still remain on government payroll by virtue of being State Vice-President, the same would not be case with his party members. For the others leaving Tonse would be close to self-indictment if not suicide. Who would want to leave the opulence that comes with the positions they are holding?

The country’s history is replete with political defections every time a coalition government or a new party takes over the reins of government. When the UDF-Aford coalition government broke up in 1996, Aford president Chakufwa Chihana who resigned as second vice State president had a rude awakening when he discovered he left government alone. His key Cabinet ministers, Matembo Nzunda, Mapopa Chipeta, Mayinga Mkandawire, Melvyn Moyo, Pat Banda and Chamayere Phiri all stayed put in government. When Bingu wa Mutharika—who was elected president on a UDF ticket—formed DPP in 2005, all UDF Cabinet ministers moved with him to the new party. In 2012, when Bingu died and Joyce Banda became president, over 30 DPP Cabinet ministers and MPs followed her into government.

If history is anything to go by as to what UTM Cabinet ministers and many others serving in the government would do if UTM were to dump Tonse today your guess is as good as mine. For UTM unlike other alliance partners, dumping Tonse is not as easy as walking in and out of a toilet.

The post Can UTM dump Tonse today or tomorrow? first appeared on The Nation Online.

The post Can UTM dump Tonse today or tomorrow? appeared first on The Nation Online.